Will Mortgage Rates Go Down in 2026?

It's the question I get more than any other right now: "Should I wait for rates to drop?" Or the flip side: "Do you think rates will come down this year?"

I'm going to give you my honest take — and I'll tell you upfront that I don't predict rates, and you should be skeptical of anyone who does. But I can give you a framework for thinking about this that actually helps you make a decision.

What the Experts Are Saying (and Why It's Hard to Know)

Most major forecasters going into 2026 were projecting rates to gradually ease — but gradually is doing a lot of work in that sentence. We're talking potentially moving from the upper 6s into the lower 6s over the course of the year, not a sudden drop back to the 3s and 4s we saw in 2020 and 2021.

The problem is that rates are tied to inflation data, the Fed's decisions, and economic conditions that nobody can predict with certainty. Forecasters who said rates would be at 5.5% by now were wrong. That doesn't mean they'll be wrong again — but it means you should plan around what rates are today, not what they might be in six months.

The Real Math on Waiting

Here's what waiting actually costs. Say you're looking at a $350,000 home today at 7%. Your principal and interest payment is about $2,329/month. If rates drop to 6.5% six months from now, that payment drops to about $2,212 — a savings of $117/month.

But here's what else happens in six months: home prices in Oakland and Macomb County have historically continued to appreciate. If that $350K home is worth $360K six months from now, you've paid $10,000 more for the house. Your rate savings of $117/month takes over 7 years to break even on that price increase — and that's assuming rates actually drop on your timeline.

Meanwhile, if rates do drop, you can refinance. You can always refinance into a lower rate later. You cannot go back in time and buy a house at today's price.

What I Actually Tell My Buyers

I tell them: buy when you're ready, buy what you can afford, and structure your loan so you can refinance cleanly if rates improve. Don't buy more house than you can handle at today's rate hoping that a refinance will bail you out — that's too much risk. But if you've found the right house at a payment that works for your budget, waiting for a rate drop that may or may not materialize is a gamble, not a strategy.

The best time to buy is when you're financially ready and you've found a home that makes sense for your life. That's it.

Want to Run Your Numbers?

I can show you exactly what different rate scenarios look like on the specific homes you're considering — today's rate, what a refinance looks like at 6%, at 5.5%, and what the break-even math is. It takes about 15 minutes and it'll give you a much clearer picture than any rate prediction will.